Google Android- Not All It's Cracked Up To Be

The blogosphere is overrun with breathless endorsements of yesterday's Google Android announcement.  Dana Gardner posts that the Google announcement "threatens no less than the personal computer itself."  The Google Android post from DailyPicture.net starts by saying "The opening volley of official announcements from Google and the Open Handset Alliance bring good news for people sick of the carrier choke hold."  I fail to see what has materially changed for PCs or for the carriers, now that Google is creating an open source mobile phone operating system. 

Let's break it down.  How is the world different now from 24 hours ago?  A large and cash-rich company with a great reputation for Internet innovation and software development has announced that it is creating an open source operating system for mobile phones.

PCs were already threatened by the growing computing power and convenience of mobile devices, with the Apple iPhone being the most notable entry of late.  If you want to believe that PCs are more threatened now than yesterday with Google's announcement, then you have to believe that Google's OS will somehow accelerate the decline of the PC, versus the rate of decline with other makers of OS software.  Personally, although the PC will surely decline, I think that the acceleration in that decline, if any, will be minimal.

What is different for carriers today?  Carriers still control which devices can be used with their networks, and they still control which features of these devices can be used in which ways on their networks.  Google's OS hasn't changed that either.  The hope among the Google advocates is that Google will use its "market power" as leverage to force the carriers to open up more, and I hope that Google does so.  I just don't think the carriers are shaking in their boots at this development.

Don't get me wrong, I do think there are good things that will come from Google's new OS, and I'll post on that next.  I just don't think that we have magically created a new world order in which the carriers no longer control their destiny, and that PCs are doomed to an earlier death.

Comments

[Ike Elliott]

Andy, that's a great point, and yes, I think GOOG wins if either of the scenarios you paint occur. There are other potential outcomes, of course. The telcos could just refuse to open up, for one. I think it is more likely that the telcos will open up to some extent and that there will be ad revenue sharing between GOOG and the telcos. The telcos are still likely though to retain some influence of what you can do from a handset. For example, they might insist that only the telco VoIP product will work from the handset. In that case, consumers continue to take it on the chin while Google and the telcos both win.

[Andy]

Ike - Interesting thoughts. Don't you think this is a win-win for GOOG? If Android fails, it's likely because the telco's opened up their platforms... to Google. If it wins, it's because the telco's opended up their platforms... to Google.