Google Could Accelerate Mobile VoIP

Skype has some legitimate worries about the timeline for mobile VoIP, but the game may change soon.  Andy Abramson reported yesterday that Skype thinks mobile VoIP is three to four years out, according to a DSL/Broadband Reports story.   The report lists the following barriers to progress for mobile VoIP:

1. The relative lack of WiFi availability in many areas.
2. The lack of consistently sufficient bandwidth on 3G wireless data networks.
3. Difficulties in working with wireless carriers.
4. The economics of the technology makes the cost too high.

I have reported the problems with VoIP over WiFi on this blog before, so no surprises there, Skype has some legitimate concerns.  And yes, handsets that can do VoIP (especially dual-mode WiFI/CDMA handsets) are still pretty expensive, but if we put the handsets on a Moore's Law diet for a year or so, the costs will come down.  The wireless carriers are running out of bandwidth on their data networks, so yes, 3G network bandwidth is a legitimate concern.  And, of course, wireless carriers have little interest in allowing their voice revenues to be siphoned off to "VoIP Squatters" that don't own and operate the wireless network.   So, Skype has reason to be worried about the timeline for mobile VoIP.

However, this may all change in the near future, if Google wins spectrum in the 700 MHz auction that starts on January 24th.  Of course, if Google wins, it will take a while to get a network operational, but probably less than four years.  Google would also presumably be a lot easier to work with than traditional wireless carriers, and would welcome mobile VoIP applications.  Google's own Android project might yield lower-cost handsets that can run VoIP.  And, maybe most importantly, the 700 MHz auction should add a bunch of wireless bandwidth to the mix, maybe enough for consistently good VoIP quality.

I don't want to get anybody's hopes up too much...Google has to win the spectrum first, and then has to strike some partnerships and build the network, which will take a couple years.  If Google does win some spectrum, though, it could accelerate the mobile VoIP lift-off by a year or so. 

Comments

[Ike Elliott]

Absolutely right, Shai, and thanks for the comments. Your two additional WiFi issues, combined with the lack of ubiquity, and the inconsistent bandwidth and jitter typical of WiFi networks, makes WiFi a poor choice for mobile VoIP. A 700 MHz network should have better propagation characteristics, and the Open Handset Alliance could drive better standards for secure login and duty cycle to conserve battery power.

[Shai Berger]

Nice post.

Two additional issues with WiFi:

1) It wasn't designed with power optimization in mind, so it is not well suited for mobile devices. That's means "dual-mode" devices (i.e. 3G/WiFi) will continue to be rare for some time.

2) No standardization for sign-on / authentication for hotspots. This one is frustrating, because it seems like it would be easy to fix. Yet, 5 years after Boingo, et al started tackling this problem, I find my odds of hassle-free sign-on very low. (And I'm definitely not going to pay an $8 "daily rate" at a hot spot so that I can make a few phone calls.)