Top Five Events to Watch in 2008

I'm looking forward to a great 2008, anticipating some fantastic blogging topics in the coming year. Here's a somewhat chronological list of the five big events that will impact the world of technology and telecom:

1. The FCC 700 MHz Auction:  the auction is scheduled to begin on January 24th and could last several weeks.  It pits silicon valley upstarts like Google against traditional wireless carriers like AT&T and Verizon Wireless.  If the licenses are all sold to traditional players, it will be a letdown, but if a new entrant such as Google wins some licenses, it has the potential to reshape the wireless data industry.  I, for one, would like to see some re-shaping in wireless data!
2. Apple:  The tech design leader launched their iPhone last summer and the product has done exceedingly well in early sales, though not quite as well as some analysts had predicted.  Still, what other company could jump in and grab 27% of the smartphone market in its first full quarter of sales?  Apple has earned the right to be watched closely.  In 2008 we should see additional iPhone products for international markets and with advanced data networking interfaces.  We'll also see Apple continue to make gains in the PC and laptop markets, including an ultra-light laptop.  And, for the VoIP space, we'll see a bunch of third-party VoIP development for the iPod Touch. 
3. Google:  2008 will be the year that we see the first Android-based phones, and Om Malik is predicting that prototypes will be demonstrated at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain, in February.  The combination of the FCC auction and the Android demonstration promises to make the first quarter an interesting time to watch Google.
4. Verizon's Open Network:  In November, Verizon Wireless announced that they would open up their network to any device that met reasonable standards, in an about face for the large wireless carrier.  Before November, VZ had been dead-set against imposing openness standards on the 700 MHz spectrum that will be auctioned in January.  There is still some skepticism that Verizon's move is more about PR than about actual openness.  The schedule announced by Verizon has been pretty loose...they claim they will have the first "open" phones approved by the end of 2008.  It will be interesting to see how serious Verizon is about opening up their network.
5. The 2008 Presidential Election:  For the first time since 1968, we have a presidential election in which none of the candidates is the sitting President or Vice President.  That fact, along with the changes in the primary and caucus schedules, promises to make 2008 the most interesting political year in decades.  So, yeah, it will be fun, but what does that have to do with tech and telecom?  This election will re-shape the FCC, and possibly congress, and that has everything to do with tech and telecom.   The five FCC commissioners are appointed by the President, and serve five year terms.  Here's when the sitting commissioners' terms expire:
   Martin (Republican):  2011
   Tate (Republican): 2012
   McDowell (Republican): 2009
   Copps (Democrat): 2010
   Adelstein (Democrat): 2008 (renominated in November for a new term expiring 2013)
   
   So, if a Democrat is elected president, and barring any comissioner resignations, McDowell's Republican seat will be the first up for replacement by the new President, and McDowell would be replaced by a Democrat.  It's a shame, too, because I've admired McDowell's reasonableness during his short tenure on the commission. 
   
   If a Democrat is elected, we are also likely to see Martin lose the chairmanship.  While the Republicans on the commission have generally favored deregulation, under Martin the commission has been selective about which industries should be deregulated, and how.  For example, the commission has been simultaneously pressing to deregulate phone networks while favoring increased regulation of cable.  This is set to change if a Democrat is elected President.

There are many more upcoming events that bear watching, of course, but too many to list here.  I'm also looking forward to the surprises.  It should be a great ride!