The Real Internet Growth Rate

Yesterday, I posted a slide from Dan Caruso's blog a Gilder-Swanson study that claimed there was 5X to 6X growth in Internet traffic in 2007.  I couldn't believe what I was seeing, because the Internet usually grows about 50 or 60% annually, meaning a jump to 500% or 600% would be huge news, indeed. 

So, thanks to some pointers by my readers, I found the Minnesota Internet Traffic Studies web site, which is a wealth of information for those interested in real, measured Internet growth statistics.

What did I find?  The Internet is still growing at 50-60% per year.  Even in 2007, it grew at 50-60% per year, both in the US, and in the entire world.

So, that Gilder-Swanson Caruso chart is wrong, at least where 2007 is concerned.  The "big bump" in Internet traffic that Gilder and Swanson Mr. Caruso predicted hasn't happened...at least, not yet. 

Editor's Note: Bret Swanson has commented on this blog post, saying that the chart in question is not his, as I apparently incorrectly reported at first.  I have corrected the citations in the blog posts related to the chart accordingly.

Comments

[Dan Caruso]

Thank you Ike and Bret for correction. I posted an apology on my site...after we sort through, we will correct prior post.

[Ike Elliott]

Thanks, Bret, for the gentle correction. I have corrected the citations in the blog posts accordingly. I apologize for the temporary mis-representation of your fine work!
Ike

[Bret Swanson]

Ike,

Thanks for your coverage. But the chart you posted, which you found on another blog, is not our chart. George and I never claimed such 500-600% growth in 2007. Not even close. The posted chart appears to be a mix of two distinct data sets and does not even appear to be Cisco's chart, which is the cite. Please read our full report at http://www.discovery.org/a/4428. (Andrew Odlyzko at UMinn has called our estimates very reasonable.) Then we can talk.

Best regards from a fan,

Bret Swanson
Senior Fellow
The Progress & Freedom Foundation